Nõmme United vs Vaprus: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Männiku staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 51%, against 15% for a draw and 34% for Vaprus. The most likely score is 3-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Nõmme United (1,543) and Vaprus (1,578).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme United have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Vaprus have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 1-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Hiiumaa(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nõmme United win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Vaprus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Vaprus 2-3 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Nõmme United 7-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Vaprus 7-0 Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Vaprus 2-0 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| May 31, 2024 | Nõmme United 2-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Vaprus vs Nõmme United on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme United score 2.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 97% probability of over 2.5 goals and 94% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
- The Footlab model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 51%, against 15% for a draw and 34% for Vaprus.
- Where and when is Nõmme United vs Vaprus played?
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus is played on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Männiku staadion, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 97% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.