Kustosija vs Mladost Ždralovi: prediction and stats
First NLRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Igralište NK Kustošija, Zagreb
The Footlab model makes Kustosija the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Mladost Ždralovi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kustosija vs Mladost Ždralovi?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Kustosija (1,826) and Mladost Ždralovi (1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kustosija have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mladost Ždralovi have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | HNK Zadar(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dugopolje(away) | 1-1 | First NL |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Karlovac 1919(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | Mladost Ždralovi(away) | 3-3 | Second NL |
| May 22, 2026 | Uljanik(home) | 1-1 | Second NL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vukovar(home) | 1-1 | First NL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Varteks Varaždin(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HNK Cibalia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dubrava Zagreb(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Inter Zapresic(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kustosija win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mladost Ždralovi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Mladost Ždralovi 3-3 Kustosija | Second NL |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Kustosija 1-2 Mladost Ždralovi | Second NL |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Kustosija 2-1 Mladost Ždralovi | Second NL |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Mladost Ždralovi 1-1 Kustosija | Second NL |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Kustosija 2-0 Mladost Ždralovi | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Kustosija 1-1 Mladost Ždralovi | Second NL |
Last archived meeting: Mladost Ždralovi vs Kustosija on May 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kustosija score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mladost Ždralovi score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kustosija | 1.6 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Mladost Ždralovi | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kustosija sit 11th in First NL (1 points from 1 matches) and Mladost Ždralovi sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mladost Ždralovi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kustosija | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kustosija vs Mladost Ždralovi?
- The Footlab model makes Kustosija the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Mladost Ždralovi.
- Where and when is Kustosija vs Mladost Ždralovi played?
- Kustosija vs Mladost Ždralovi is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Igralište NK Kustošija, in the First NL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.