KV Mechelen vs Charleroi: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Malines
The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for KV Mechelen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
Charleroi starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KV Mechelen have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Charleroi have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Standard Liege(home) | 3-3 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 1-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 3-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 KV Mechelen win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Charleroi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 7, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen | Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Charleroi 0-2 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| May 18, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Charleroi 3-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
KV Mechelen score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Charleroi score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Charleroi | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KV Mechelen sit 14th in Jupiler Pro League (1 points from 3 matches) and Charleroi sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Charleroi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
- The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for KV Mechelen.
- Where and when is KV Mechelen vs Charleroi played?
- KV Mechelen vs Charleroi is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.