La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, La Unión
The Footlab model makes La Unión Atlético the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Lorca Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate La Unión Atlético (1,876) and Lorca Deportiva (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, La Unión Atlético have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Lorca Deportiva have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Puente Genil(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Extremadura 1924(away) | 2-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Ucam Murcia(home) | 4-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Xerez(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 La Unión Atlético win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Lorca Deportiva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | La Unión Atlético 1-2 Lorca Deportiva | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva 1-2 La Unión Atlético | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 21, 2023 | Lorca Deportiva 0-1 La Unión Atlético | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 14, 2023 | La Unión Atlético 0-0 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Lorca Deportiva 2-1 La Unión Atlético | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | La Unión Atlético 0-0 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
La Unión Atlético score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lorca Deportiva score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Unión Atlético | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lorca Deportiva | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva?
- The Footlab model makes La Unión Atlético the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Lorca Deportiva.
- Where and when is La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva played?
- La Unión Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.