Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Garmendipe, Azpeitia
The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Lagun Onak (1,789) and Real Sociedad III (1,798).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagun Onak have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad III have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Lagun Onak win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Real Sociedad III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Lagun Onak 3-2 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Real Sociedad III 1-4 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 17, 2019 | Real Sociedad III 1-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad III score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Sociedad III | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lagun Onak sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (57 points from 34 matches) and Real Sociedad III sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 39 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III?
- The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad III.
- Where and when is Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III played?
- Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Garmendipe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.