Beasain vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estado Municipal de Loinaz, Beasain
The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Beasain wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beasain vs Aretxabaleta?
Beasain starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,727).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Beasain vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Beasain
Not enough data to predict the Beasain lineup.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beasain have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Beasain win, 1 draw, 1 Aretxabaleta win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 0-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Beasain 1-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 2-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aretxabaleta vs Beasain on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Beasain score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beasain | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Beasain sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 6 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 5th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Beasain vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beasain vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Beasain vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Beasain vs Aretxabaleta is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estado Municipal de Loinaz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.