Derio vs San Ignacio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for San Ignacio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs San Ignacio?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Derio (1,782) and San Ignacio (1,754).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derio vs San Ignacio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
San Ignacio
Not enough data to predict the San Ignacio lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; San Ignacio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derio wins, 3 draws, 0 San Ignacio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | San Ignacio 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | San Ignacio 1-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Derio 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | San Ignacio 3-3 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Derio 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | San Ignacio 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; San Ignacio score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| San Ignacio | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derio sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (12 points from 6 matches) and San Ignacio sit 7th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
A question about Derio vs San Ignacio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs San Ignacio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for San Ignacio.
- Where and when is Derio vs San Ignacio played?
- Derio vs San Ignacio is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.