Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
The Footlab model makes Lask Linz the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Lask Linz (2,115) and Sturm Graz (2,089).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lask Linz have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Sturm Graz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ried(home) | 4-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kalsdorf(away) | 7-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lask Linz win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lask Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-3 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Lask Linz 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Lask Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lask Linz score 2.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 2.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lask Linz sit 2nd in Bundesliga (9 points from 3 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Lask Linz the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz played?
- Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Raiffeisen Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.