Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Austria Lustenau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (2,084 vs 1,842).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austria Lustenau have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Sturm Graz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grazer AK(away) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ried(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Krems / Rehberg(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Austria Lustenau win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| Oct 30, 2013 | Austria Lustenau 0-4 Sturm Graz | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Austria Lustenau score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Austria Lustenau sit 5th in Bundesliga (5 points from 4 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Austria Lustenau | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Austria Lustenau.
- Where and when is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz played?
- Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Planet Pure Stadion, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.