Latvia vs Cyprus: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cyprus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Latvia vs Cyprus?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Latvia (1,310) and Cyprus (1,301).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Latvia have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Cyprus have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Liechtenstein(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Slovenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Moldova(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Estonia(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Latvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Cyprus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | Cyprus 1-1 Latvia | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cyprus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Cyprus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Latvia vs Cyprus?
- The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cyprus.
- Where and when is Latvia vs Cyprus played?
- Latvia vs Cyprus is played on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.