Slovakia vs Kazakhstan: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Košická futbalová aréna, Košice
The Footlab model makes Slovakia the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Kazakhstan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slovakia vs Kazakhstan?
Slovakia starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,554 vs 1,398).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slovakia have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Kazakhstan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Montenegro(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Malta(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Romania(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Kosovo(home) | 3-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Germany(away) | 0-6 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 1-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Namibia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Faroe Islands(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Slovakia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Kazakhstan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2022 | Kazakhstan 2-1 Slovakia | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2022 | Slovakia 0-1 Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League |
Last archived meeting: Kazakhstan vs Slovakia on Jun 13, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Slovakia score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kazakhstan score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | 1.1 | 1.4 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slovakia vs Kazakhstan?
- The Footlab model makes Slovakia the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Kazakhstan.
- Where and when is Slovakia vs Kazakhstan played?
- Slovakia vs Kazakhstan is played on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Košická futbalová aréna, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.