Finland vs Belarus: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Helsingin olympiastadion, Helsingfors
The Footlab model makes Finland the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Belarus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finland vs Belarus?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Finland (1,474) and Belarus (1,422).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finland have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Belarus have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Finland win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Belarus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2018 | Finland 2-0 Belarus | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Finland score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Belarus score 1.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Belarus | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finland vs Belarus?
- The Footlab model makes Finland the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Belarus.
- Where and when is Finland vs Belarus played?
- Finland vs Belarus is played on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Helsingin olympiastadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.