Moldova vs Faroe Islands: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
The Footlab model makes Moldova the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Faroe Islands. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Moldova (1,290) and Faroe Islands (1,345).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moldova have 0 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats; Faroe Islands have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Latvia(away) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 28, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kazakhstan(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Croatia(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Moldova win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Faroe Islands win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2023 | Faroe Islands 0-1 Moldova | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Faroe Islands 2-1 Moldova | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Last archived meeting: Faroe Islands vs Moldova on Sep 10, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Moldova score 0.8 and concede 3.0 goals per match over their last 15; Faroe Islands score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Faroe Islands | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
- The Footlab model makes Moldova the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Faroe Islands.
- Where and when is Moldova vs Faroe Islands played?
- Moldova vs Faroe Islands is played on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Zimbru, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.