Le Havre vs Lille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 33Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Océane, Le Havre
The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Havre vs Lille?
Lille starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (2,104 vs 1,883).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Havre have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Lille have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Le Havre win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lille 1-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Le Havre 0-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lille 1-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Le Havre 0-3 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Lille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Le Havre 0-2 Lille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lille score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Lille | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Havre sit 14th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Lille sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Lille?
- The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Le Havre vs Lille played?
- Le Havre vs Lille is played on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Océane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.