Le Havre vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 28Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Océane, Le Havre
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,583 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Havre vs Marseille?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (2,087 vs 1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Le Havre vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Le Havre
4-2-3-1- 9J. Maja
- 7A. Richardson
- 25M. Samatta
- 26S. Ebonog
- 30S. Nakamura
- 14R. Ndiaye
- 15A. Seko
- 5A. Touba
- 20D. Ouziad
- 23V. Sasso
- 93G. Gallon
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 77A. Harit
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Havre have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Angers(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Le Havre wins, 0 draws, 6 Marseille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Le Havre 0-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Marseille 6-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Le Havre 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Marseille 5-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 19, 2024 | Le Havre 1-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Marseille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Le Havre vs Marseille on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Havre sit 18th in Ligue 1 (2 points from 6 matches) and Marseille sit 14th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
A question about Le Havre vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Le Havre vs Marseille played?
- Le Havre vs Marseille is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Océane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.