Le Mans vs Le Havre: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 29Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
The Footlab model makes Le Mans the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Mans vs Le Havre?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Le Mans (1,937) and Le Havre (1,883).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Le Havre have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Le Mans win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Le Havre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans 0-1 Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Le Havre 0-1 Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 3, 2019 | Le Havre 2-0 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2013 | Le Mans 0-4 Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 14, 2012 | Le Havre 1-0 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 17, 2012 | Le Mans 3-1 Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Mans sit 7th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Le Havre sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Le Havre?
- The Footlab model makes Le Mans the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Le Mans vs Le Havre played?
- Le Mans vs Le Havre is played on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Marie-Marvingt, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.