Estac Troyes vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 29Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,969) and Toulouse (1,974).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Toulouse have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estac Troyes win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Toulouse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2023 | Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Estac Troyes 0-3 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Toulouse 6-1 Estac Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 6, 2021 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 27, 2018 | Toulouse 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes on Feb 1, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 13th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Toulouse sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse played?
- Estac Troyes vs Toulouse is played on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.