Lens vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lens vs Le Mans?
Lens starts as the favourite with a 243-point Elo edge (2,180 vs 1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Le Mans have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 5-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-0 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Lens win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Le Mans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2019 | Le Mans 1-2 Lens | Ligue 2 |
| May 24, 2013 | Le Mans 2-1 Lens | Ligue 2 |
| Jul 28, 2012 | Lens 2-2 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 6, 2012 | Lens 1-3 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 26, 2011 | Le Mans 0-1 Lens | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lens score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lens sit 2nd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Le Mans sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lens vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Lens vs Le Mans played?
- Lens vs Le Mans is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.