Match

Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin: prediction and stats

EkstraklasaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań

Lech PoznanMotor Lublin

The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Motor Lublin. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?

Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 1,934).

Lech Poznan win70 %
Draw18 %
Motor Lublin win12 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Motor Lublin have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lech Poznan
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026FC Thun(home)7-0UEFA Europa League
Aug 14, 2026KI Klaksvik(away)5-0UEFA Europa League
Aug 9, 2026Piast Gliwice(home)3-0Ekstraklasa
Aug 6, 2026KI Klaksvik(home)1-0UEFA Europa League
Aug 1, 2026Wieczysta Kraków(away)2-1Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Korona Kielce(away)1-1Ekstraklasa
Aug 16, 2026GKS Katowice(home)1-0Ekstraklasa
Aug 8, 2026Pogon Szczecin(away)1-3Ekstraklasa
Jul 31, 2026Jagiellonia(home)1-2Ekstraklasa
Jul 26, 2026Widzew Łódź(away)2-2Ekstraklasa

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Lech Poznan win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Motor Lublin win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
May 2, 2026Motor Lublin 0-1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Nov 2, 2025Lech Poznan 2-2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
Apr 13, 2025Motor Lublin 1-2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Oct 5, 2024Lech Poznan 1-2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa

Last archived meeting: Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan on May 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Motor Lublin score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Lech Poznan2.60.777/1511/15
Motor Lublin1.41.639/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Motor Lublin sit 13th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Lech Poznan3210517
13Motor Lublin5122685

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Motor Lublin.
Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin played?
Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin is played on May 22, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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