Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 33Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, Tomaszów Mazowiecki
The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Lechia T. Mazowiecki (1,758) and Warta Sieradz (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Warta Sieradz have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 4-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki(home) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Troszyn(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Warta Sieradz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1-1 Warta Sieradz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Warta Sieradz 2-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2025 | Warta Sieradz 4-0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1-0 Warta Sieradz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0-1 Warta Sieradz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Warta Sieradz 3-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Sieradz score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Warta Sieradz | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th in III Liga - Group 1 (9 points from 5 matches) and Warta Sieradz sit 12th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | Warta Sieradz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz?
- The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki.
- Where and when is Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz played?
- Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz is played on May 22, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 22, 2027SwitvsWisła Płock II
- May 22, 2027Jagiellonia IIvsOlimpia Zambrów
- May 22, 2027ŁKS Łódź IIvsWidzew II
- May 22, 2027Mławianka MławavsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- May 22, 2027ŁomżavsWigry Suwałki
- May 22, 2027TroszynvsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- May 22, 2027Ząbkovia ZąbkivsOlimpia Elbląg
- May 22, 2027WeszlovsPelikan Łowicz