Arsenal vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Leeds. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (2,459 vs 2,262).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Leeds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 7B. Saka
- 41D. Rice
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 33R. Calafiori
- 4B. White
- 12J. Timber
- 1David Raya
Known absences
C. TzolisOut · Hamstring injury
E. KonsaOut · Muscle injury
W. SalibaOut · Back injury
Cristhian MosqueraDoubtful · Muscle injury
Leeds
3-5-2- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 19N. Okafor
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Known absences
J. RodonOut · Muscle injury- Mateo Joseph Fernández RegatilloOut · Knee injury
- H. WilsonDoubtful · Muscle injury
- J. BahoyaDoubtful · Ankle injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Leeds have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Arsenal wins, 0 draws, 0 Leeds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Leeds 0-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Arsenal 5-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Arsenal 4-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Leeds 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 8, 2022 | Arsenal 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 18, 2021 | Leeds 1-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (12 points from 5 matches) and Leeds sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
A question about Arsenal vs Leeds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Leeds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Leeds played?
- Arsenal vs Leeds is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.