Workington vs Alfreton Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 16Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Borough Park, Workington, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Alfreton Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Workington vs Alfreton Town?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Workington (1,693) and Alfreton Town (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Workington have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Alfreton Town have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avro(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avro(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Workington score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alfreton Town score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workington | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Alfreton Town | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Workington sit 19th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Alfreton Town sit 11th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Workington | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Workington vs Alfreton Town?
- The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Alfreton Town.
- Where and when is Workington vs Alfreton Town played?
- Workington vs Alfreton Town is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Borough Park, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.