Leganés II vs Trival Valderas: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anexo Butarque, Leganés
The Footlab model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Leganés II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leganés II vs Trival Valderas?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Leganés II (1,800) and Trival Valderas (1,829).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leganés II have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Trival Valderas have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Trival Valderas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 17, 2026 | Trival Valderas(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 10, 2026 | Alcobendas Sport(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tres Cantos(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | La Nucía(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | La Nucía(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 31, 2026 | Las Rozas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 24, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leganés II win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Trival Valderas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Trival Valderas 1-1 Leganés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 17, 2026 | Leganés II 0-1 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Leganés II 0-1 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Trival Valderas 0-2 Leganés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Trival Valderas 1-1 Leganés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Leganés II 1-2 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
Last archived meeting: Trival Valderas vs Leganés II on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leganés II score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Trival Valderas score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganés II | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Trival Valderas | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leganés II sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (55 points from 34 matches) and Trival Valderas sit 2nd (60 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Trival Valderas | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 60 |
| 5 | Leganés II | 34 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 63 | 33 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leganés II vs Trival Valderas?
- The Footlab model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Leganés II.
- Where and when is Leganés II vs Trival Valderas played?
- Leganés II vs Trival Valderas is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anexo Butarque, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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