Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Jagiellonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Legia Warszawa (2,059) and Jagiellonia (2,060).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legia Warszawa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Jagiellonia have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Legia Warszawa win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Jagiellonia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-0 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 3-1 Jagiellonia | Cup |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Jagiellonia 1-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Legia Warszawa 2-0 Jagiellonia | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Legia Warszawa sit 1st in Ekstraklasa (11 points from 5 matches) and Jagiellonia sit 10th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
- The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Jagiellonia.
- Where and when is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia played?
- Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is played on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 20, 2027Slask WroclawvsWisla Krakow
- Mar 20, 2027Gornik ZabrzevsMotor Lublin
- Mar 20, 2027Wisla PlockvsZaglebie Lubin
- Mar 20, 2027Pogon SzczecinvsPiast Gliwice
- Mar 20, 2027Cracovia KrakowvsGKS Katowice
- Mar 20, 2027Raków CzęstochowavsKorona Kielce
- Mar 20, 2027Radomiak RadomvsLech Poznan
- Mar 20, 2027Wieczysta KrakówvsWidzew Łódź