Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
The Footlab model makes Gornik Zabrze the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Jagiellonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Gornik Zabrze (2,041) and Jagiellonia (2,060).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gornik Zabrze have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Jagiellonia have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gornik Zabrze win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Jagiellonia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| May 4, 2025 | Jagiellonia 1-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Jagiellonia 4-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd in Ekstraklasa (9 points from 3 matches) and Jagiellonia sit 10th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
- The Footlab model makes Gornik Zabrze the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Jagiellonia.
- Where and when is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia played?
- Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia is played on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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