Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Legia Warszawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Jagiellonia (2,057) and Legia Warszawa (2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Legia Warszawa have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jagiellonia win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Legia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-0 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 3-1 Jagiellonia | Cup |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Jagiellonia 1-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Legia Warszawa 2-0 Jagiellonia | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia sit 9th in Ekstraklasa (6 points from 3 matches) and Legia Warszawa sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Legia Warszawa.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa played?
- Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Wisla KrakowvsSlask Wroclaw
- Sep 19, 2026Zaglebie LubinvsWisla Plock
- Sep 19, 2026Korona KielcevsRaków Częstochowa
- Sep 19, 2026Lech PoznanvsRadomiak Radom
- Sep 19, 2026Piast GliwicevsPogon Szczecin
- Sep 19, 2026GKS KatowicevsCracovia Krakow
- Sep 19, 2026Widzew ŁódźvsWieczysta Kraków
- Sep 19, 2026Motor LublinvsGornik Zabrze