Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,743).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aurrerá Vitoria
4-3-3- ÍÍñigo Hernández
- DDevis
- AAsier Ruiz
- MMartín Asurmendi
- MMikel Gonzalez
- AAritz Castro
- JJoel Martinez
- YYeray Terrazas
- HHodei Gastaminza
- JJon Rementería
- JJulen Barria
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Touring(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Aurrerá Vitoria wins, 0 draws, 5 Leioa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa 4-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Leioa 3-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Leioa 3-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Leioa | 1.6 | 2.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (13 points from 6 matches) and Leioa sit 2nd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.