Beasain vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estado Municipal de Loinaz, Beasain
The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Leioa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beasain vs Leioa?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Beasain (1,882) and Leioa (1,840).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beasain have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Touring(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Náxara(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ebro(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Beasain win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Leioa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Leioa 1-3 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Beasain 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Leioa 1-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Beasain 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 5, 2024 | Beasain 3-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Leioa 2-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Beasain score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beasain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beasain vs Leioa?
- The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Leioa.
- Where and when is Beasain vs Leioa played?
- Beasain vs Leioa is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estado Municipal de Loinaz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.