Beasain vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estado Municipal de Loinaz, Beasain
The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Leioa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Beasain wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beasain vs Leioa?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Beasain (1,842) and Leioa (1,850).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Beasain vs Leioa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Beasain
Not enough data to predict the Beasain lineup.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beasain have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Beasain wins, 1 draw, 2 Leioa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Leioa 1-3 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Beasain 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Leioa 1-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Beasain 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 5, 2024 | Beasain 3-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Leioa 2-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Beasain score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beasain | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Leioa | 1.6 | 2.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Beasain sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 6 matches) and Leioa sit 2nd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Beasain vs Leioa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beasain vs Leioa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Leioa.
- Where and when is Beasain vs Leioa played?
- Beasain vs Leioa is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estado Municipal de Loinaz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.