Leiston vs Alvechurch: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 16Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victory Road, Leiston, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Leiston the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alvechurch. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leiston vs Alvechurch?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Leiston (1,790) and Alvechurch (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leiston have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Alvechurch have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stourbridge(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rushall Olympic(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Anstey Nomads(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gorleston(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Needham Market(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leiston win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Alvechurch win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Alvechurch 1-1 Leiston | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Leiston 3-3 Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Alvechurch 1-1 Leiston | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Nov 12, 2024 | Leiston 2-1 Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Leiston 2-2 Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Nov 28, 2023 | Alvechurch 0-2 Leiston | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
Last archived meeting: Alvechurch vs Leiston on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leiston score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Alvechurch score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiston | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Alvechurch | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leiston sit 8th in Non League Premier - Southern Central (4 points from 3 matches) and Alvechurch sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leiston vs Alvechurch?
- The Footlab model makes Leiston the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alvechurch.
- Where and when is Leiston vs Alvechurch played?
- Leiston vs Alvechurch is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Road, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026StamfordvsHalesowen Town
- Oct 31, 2026StourbridgevsKettering Town
- Oct 31, 2026Bury TownvsBanbury United
- Oct 31, 2026Redditch UnitedvsNeedham Market
- Oct 31, 2026Rushall OlympicvsRacing Club Warwick
- Oct 31, 2026Stratford TownvsHitchin Town
- Oct 31, 2026LeamingtonvsPeterborough Sports
- Oct 31, 2026Anstey NomadsvsBishop's Stortford