Lille vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 27Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Toulouse?
Lille starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (2,104 vs 1,974).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Toulouse have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lille win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Toulouse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Toulouse 0-4 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Lille 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Toulouse 1-2 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Lille 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Toulouse 3-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Lille 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Toulouse sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Lille vs Toulouse played?
- Lille vs Toulouse is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.