Toulouse vs Lille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?
Lille starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (2,080 vs 1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lille have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Toulouse win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Toulouse 0-4 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Lille 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Toulouse 1-2 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Lille 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Toulouse 3-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Lille 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lille score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Lille | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 10th in Ligue 1 (44 points from 33 matches) and Lille sit 3rd (61 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | 61 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 46 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lille?
- The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Lille played?
- Toulouse vs Lille is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.