Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 27Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Stade Brestois 29. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Stade Brestois 29 have 1, 7 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Stade Briochin(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Marseille win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Stade Brestois 29 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Marseille 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Marseille 4-1 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 1-5 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Marseille 2-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 1st in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Stade Brestois 29 sit 6th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29?
- The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Stade Brestois 29.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29 played?
- Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29 is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.