Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC)Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller
The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Fredrikstad. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Lillestrom (2,027) and Fredrikstad (1,955).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lillestrom have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Fredrikstad have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Start(away) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sandefjord(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rosenborg(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-1 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lillestrom win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Fredrikstad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Fredrikstad 0-2 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Lillestrom 2-2 Fredrikstad | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2025 | Lillestrom 1-1 Fredrikstad | NM Cupen |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Fredrikstad 1-0 Lillestrom | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fredrikstad 2-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| May 20, 2024 | Lillestrom 0-3 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lillestrom score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fredrikstad score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Fredrikstad | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lillestrom sit 5th in Eliteserien (26 points from 17 matches) and Fredrikstad sit 8th (23 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
- The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Fredrikstad.
- Where and when is Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad played?
- Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad is played on August 30, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC) at Åråsen Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.