Viking vs Aalesund: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Lyse Arena, Stavanger
The Footlab model makes Viking the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Aalesund. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Viking vs Aalesund?
Viking starts as the favourite with a 258-point Elo edge (2,189 vs 1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Viking have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Aalesund have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosenborg(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(home) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Start(away) | 3-0 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Langevag(away) | 13-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Valerenga(home) | 5-5 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ham-Kam(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tromso(home) | 2-6 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Viking win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aalesund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Aalesund 1-1 Viking | Eliteserien |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Viking 1-2 Aalesund | NM Cupen |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Aalesund 0-1 Viking | NM Cupen |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Aalesund 0-4 Viking | Eliteserien |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Viking 3-1 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Aalesund 2-1 Viking | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Viking score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aalesund score 2.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Aalesund | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Viking sit 2nd in Eliteserien (40 points from 17 matches) and Aalesund sit 15th (15 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Viking vs Aalesund?
- The Footlab model makes Viking the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Aalesund.
- Where and when is Viking vs Aalesund played?
- Viking vs Aalesund is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Lyse Arena, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.