Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Romssa Arena, Tromsø
The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,064 vs 1,963).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tromso have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sarpsborg 08 FF have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 6-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandefjord(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viking(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Molde(away) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ham-Kam(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(away) | 0-0 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tromso win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Tromso 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| May 25, 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-3 Tromso | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Tromso 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tromso score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sarpsborg 08 FF score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tromso sit 3rd in Eliteserien (34 points from 17 matches) and Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th (22 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 34 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
- The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Where and when is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF played?
- Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Romssa Arena, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.