Liverpool vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Anfield, Liverpool
The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Liverpool (2,205) and Bournemouth (2,198).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Bournemouth have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Como(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 10-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Liverpool win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bournemouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Liverpool on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Liverpool score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liverpool sit 10th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Bournemouth sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Liverpool vs Bournemouth played?
- Liverpool vs Bournemouth is played on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Anfield, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.