Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 6, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 22Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major

Llantwit Major

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,485).

Llantwit Major win21 %

Draw20 %

Caerau (Ely) win59 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Llantwit Major
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-5	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cambrian & Clydach(home)	1-3	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Llantwit Major win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 28, 2026	Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Sep 12, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 0-0 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Apr 5, 2025	Llantwit Major 1-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Feb 7, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 2-4 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Feb 2, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Sep 30, 2023	Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Llantwit Major	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	13/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Llantwit Major.
Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 6, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.