Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 22Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,562).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Llantwit Major
Not enough data to predict the Llantwit Major lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Llantwit Major wins, 1 draw, 3 Caerau (Ely) wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 0-0 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Llantwit Major 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-4 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 15th in FAW Championship (8 points from 9 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 6, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 5, 2027Pontypridd TownvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Feb 6, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsSwansea University
- Feb 6, 2027Pontardawe TownvsAfan Lido
- Feb 6, 2027Trethomas Bluebirdsvsllanelli AFC
- Feb 6, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsCarmarthen Town
- Feb 6, 2027Treowen StarsvsNewport City
- Feb 6, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsBaglan Dragons