Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 23Kick-off on February 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,548).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Caerau (Ely) wins, 0 draws, 2 Baglan Dragons wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-5 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 1-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 2-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) on Aug 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons is played on February 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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