Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major played?

Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)

Llantwit Major

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 77%, against 13% for a draw and 10% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 3-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,483).

Caerau (Ely) win77 %

Draw13 %

Llantwit Major win10 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Llantwit Major have 4, 1 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

Llantwit Major
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-5	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cambrian & Clydach(home)	1-3	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Llantwit Major win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 28, 2026	Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Sep 12, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 0-0 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Apr 5, 2025	Llantwit Major 1-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Feb 7, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 2-4 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Feb 2, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Sep 30, 2023	Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Llantwit Major	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Llantwit Major sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 77%, against 13% for a draw and 10% for Llantwit Major.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major played?: Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.