Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 72%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,702 vs 1,536).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Llantwit Major
Not enough data to predict the Llantwit Major lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Llantwit Major have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Caerau (Ely) wins, 1 draw, 2 Llantwit Major wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 0-0 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Llantwit Major 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-4 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Llantwit Major 1-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.4 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Llantwit Major | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (16 points from 9 matches) and Llantwit Major sit 15th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 7 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 72%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 23, 2026Carmarthen TownvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Oct 23, 2026Newport CityvsPontypridd Town
- Oct 23, 2026llanelli AFCvsAfan Lido
- Oct 24, 2026Baglan DragonsvsAberystwyth Town
- Oct 24, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTreowen Stars
- Oct 24, 2026Pontardawe TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Oct 24, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsCardiff Draconians