Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,483) and Aberystwyth Town (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Llantwit Major win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aberystwyth Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 5-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 2-2 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Llantwit Major 1-2 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.