Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aberystwyth Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town?
Aberystwyth Town starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,673 vs 1,564).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Llantwit Major
Not enough data to predict the Llantwit Major lineup.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:03 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Llantwit Major wins, 1 draw, 2 Aberystwyth Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 5-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 2-2 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Llantwit Major 1-2 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 15th in FAW Championship (8 points from 9 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.