Estac Troyes vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lyon wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Lyon starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (2,137 vs 1,933).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estac Troyes vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 29D. Karim
- 11I. Gomis
- 7K. Diawara
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 2L. Maronnier
- 5P. Gozzi
- 33P. Beach
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lyon have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estac Troyes wins, 0 draws, 6 Lyon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2023 | Estac Troyes 1-3 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 19, 2022 | Lyon 4-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 16, 2022 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 22, 2021 | Lyon 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| May 6, 2018 | Lyon 3-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 22, 2017 | Estac Troyes 0-5 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lyon | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 17th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 6 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Lyon played?
- Estac Troyes vs Lyon is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.