Lorient vs Monaco: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient
The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monaco wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
Monaco starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,159 vs 2,017).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lorient vs Monaco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lorient
3-4-2-1- 18I. Baldé
- 17J. Makengo
- 43K. Kouassi
- 33G. Bernardeau
- 8N. Cadiou
- 77P. Katseris
- 62A. Avom
- 32N. Adjei
- 3M. Talbi
- 20D. Sylla
- 38Y. Mvogo
Monaco
4-2-3-1- 29Paris Josua Brunner
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 10A. Golovin
- 17S. Idumbo-Muzambo
- 37E. Diop
- 15E. Dier
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 2Vanderson
- 20Flávio Nazinho
- 1L. Hrádecký
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lorient have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Monaco have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toulouse(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nice(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lorient wins, 3 draws, 1 Monaco win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Monaco 1-3 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Lorient 3-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Monaco 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Lorient 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Monaco 3-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Lorient 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lorient score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Monaco score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Monaco | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lorient sit 12th in Ligue 1 (5 points from 5 matches) and Monaco sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
A question about Lorient vs Monaco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Monaco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Lorient vs Monaco played?
- Lorient vs Monaco is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.