Estac Troyes vs Lens: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lens wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Lens starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,170 vs 1,958).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estac Troyes vs Lens
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 22H. Picard
- 29D. Karim
- 23T. Nkada
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 3A. Ouzenadji
- 2L. Maronnier
- 33P. Beach
Lens
3-4-2-1- 19A. Sima
- 10F. Thauvin
- 27M. Cuisance
- 2R. Aguilar
- 21A. Haidara
- 22M. Skóraś
- 28J. Kadile
- 14M. Udol
- 32K. Antonio
- 20J. Todibo
- 40R. Risser
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Lens have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estac Troyes wins, 1 draw, 5 Lens wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Estac Troyes 2-4 Lens | Coupe de France |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Lens 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 5, 2021 | Lens 4-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 4, 2020 | Lens 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lens score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lens | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 16th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Lens sit 15th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Lens played?
- Estac Troyes vs Lens is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.