Le Havre vs Auxerre: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Océane, Le Havre
The Footlab model makes Le Havre the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Auxerre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Le Havre (1,889) and Auxerre (1,957).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Havre have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Auxerre have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-5 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Le Havre win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Auxerre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Auxerre 0-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2025 | Auxerre 1-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| May 7, 2022 | Le Havre 1-2 Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 21, 2021 | Auxerre 2-3 Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Auxerre score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Auxerre | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Havre sit 14th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Auxerre sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
- The Footlab model makes Le Havre the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Auxerre.
- Where and when is Le Havre vs Auxerre played?
- Le Havre vs Auxerre is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Océane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.