Le Mans vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
The Footlab AI model makes Le Mans the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1. If Le Mans wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Le Mans (1,960) and Toulouse (1,985).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Le Mans vs Toulouse
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Le Mans
3-1-4-2- 14L. Mafouta
- 25D. Guèye
- 11A. Bourabaa
- 26R. Bamba
- 10J. Vercruysse
- 29L. Bretelle
- 22L. Calodat
- 5H. Voyer
- 17S. Yohou
- 15N. Boissé
- 98N. Kocik
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 9S. Hidalgo
- 14N. Sigur
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Toulouse have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Mans score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Mans sit 9th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 5 matches) and Toulouse sit 13th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
A question about Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab AI model makes Le Mans the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Le Mans vs Toulouse played?
- Le Mans vs Toulouse is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Marie-Marvingt, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.