Match

Lucchese vs Prato: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Porta Elisa, Lucca

LucchesePrato

The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Prato. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lucchese vs Prato?

A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Lucchese (1,736) and Prato (1,787).

Lucchese win37 %
Draw30 %
Prato win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lucchese have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Prato have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lucchese
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 17, 2025Sestri Levante(home)1-0Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
May 10, 2025Sestri Levante(away)1-2Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
Apr 27, 2025Torres(home)3-2Serie C - Girone B
Apr 23, 2025Arezzo(away)1-4Serie C - Girone B
Apr 13, 2025Vis Pesaro(home)1-0Serie C - Girone B
Prato
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Seravezza(home)1-2Serie D - Girone E
May 10, 2026Robur Siena(home)3-1Serie D - Girone E
May 3, 2026Montevarchi Calcio(home)1-0Serie D - Girone E
Apr 26, 2026Sporting Trestina(away)2-0Serie D - Girone E
Apr 19, 2026Grosseto(home)1-0Serie D - Girone E

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Lucchese win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Prato win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 3, 2019Prato 0-1 LuccheseSerie D - Girone A
Mar 24, 2018Prato 0-1 LuccheseSerie C - Girone A
Nov 8, 2017Lucchese 0-0 PratoSerie C - Girone A
Mar 11, 2017Prato 3-2 LuccheseSerie C - Girone A
Oct 23, 2016Lucchese 3-0 PratoSerie C - Girone A

Last archived meeting: Prato vs Lucchese on Nov 3, 2019

How many goals should we expect?

Lucchese score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Prato score 1.6 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Lucchese1.71.6411/159/15
Prato1.60.6105/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Prato342059492963

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lucchese vs Prato?
The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Prato.
Where and when is Lucchese vs Prato played?
Lucchese vs Prato is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Lucchese and Prato

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