Lucchese vs Sestri Levante: prediction and stats
Coppa Italia Serie DRound of 32Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Porta Elisa, Lucca
The Footlab AI model makes Lucchese the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Sestri Levante. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lucchese wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,949 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Lucchese (1,782) and Sestri Levante (1,751).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lucchese
4-3-3- 9S. Magnaghi
- 10A. Selvini
- 19F. Fedato
- 21E. Visconti
- 27R. Gucher
- 70E. Saporiti
- 5S. Benedetti
- 29E. Antoni
- 30A. Gemignani
- 3N. Rizzo
- 59R. Melgrati
Sestri Levante
Not enough data to predict the Sestri Levante lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 01:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lucchese have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sestri Levante have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ternana(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Grassina(away) | 6-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celle Varazze(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Borgosesia(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Biellese(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lucchese wins, 2 draws, 2 Sestri Levante wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Lucchese 1-0 Sestri Levante | Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2025 | Sestri Levante 2-1 Lucchese | Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Sestri Levante 1-1 Lucchese | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Lucchese 0-0 Sestri Levante | Serie C - Girone B |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Lucchese 1-3 Sestri Levante | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Sestri Levante 0-1 Lucchese | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Lucchese vs Sestri Levante on May 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lucchese score 1.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sestri Levante score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucchese | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sestri Levante | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lucchese the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Sestri Levante.
- Where and when is Lucchese vs Sestri Levante played?
- Lucchese vs Sestri Levante is played on October 28, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Coppa Italia Serie D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.