Where and when is Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur played?

Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Moraños, in the Primera C.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur: prediction and stats

Primera CRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José María Moraños, La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Lugano

Estrella Del Sur

The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Estrella Del Sur. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?

A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Lugano (1,561) and Estrella Del Sur (1,638).

Lugano win37 %

Draw33 %

Estrella Del Sur win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugano have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Estrella Del Sur have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lugano
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Leandro N. Alem(away)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 16, 2026	Lujan(home)	1-2	Primera C
Aug 9, 2026	Victoriano Arenas(home)	0-0	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Defensores de Cambaceres(away)	2-1	Primera C
Jul 25, 2026	Centro Español(home)	1-0	Primera C

Estrella Del Sur
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Centro Español(away)	0-2	Primera C
Aug 15, 2026	Canuelas(away)	2-1	Primera C
Aug 8, 2026	JJ Urquiza(home)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 4, 2026	Lujan(home)	0-2	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Mercedes(away)	1-1	Primera C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Lugano win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Estrella Del Sur win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 23, 2026	Estrella Del Sur 3-2 Lugano	Primera C

Last archived meeting: Estrella Del Sur vs Lugano on May 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lugano score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella Del Sur score 1.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lugano	1.2	0.8	9	6/15	7/15
Estrella Del Sur	1.0	0.8	7	4/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lugano sit 2nd in Primera C (39 points from 25 matches) and Estrella Del Sur sit 4th (38 points from 25 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Lugano	25	10	9	6	29	22	39
4	Estrella Del Sur	25	10	8	7	26	23	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?: The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Estrella Del Sur.
Where and when is Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur played?: Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Moraños, in the Primera C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.