Where and when is Lugano vs Leones de Rosario played?

Lugano vs Leones de Rosario is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Moraños, in the Primera C.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lugano vs Leones de Rosario: prediction and stats

Primera CRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José María Moraños, La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Lugano

Leones de Rosario

The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 38%, against 35% for a draw and 27% for Leones de Rosario. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lugano vs Leones de Rosario?

A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Lugano (1,561) and Leones de Rosario (1,630).

Lugano win38 %

Draw35 %

Leones de Rosario win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugano have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Leones de Rosario have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lugano
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Leandro N. Alem(away)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 16, 2026	Lujan(home)	1-2	Primera C
Aug 9, 2026	Victoriano Arenas(home)	0-0	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Defensores de Cambaceres(away)	2-1	Primera C
Jul 25, 2026	Centro Español(home)	1-0	Primera C

Leones de Rosario
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Deportivo Muñiz(home)	2-1	Primera C
Aug 22, 2026	Canuelas(away)	0-1	Primera C
Aug 17, 2026	Defensores de Cambaceres(home)	2-0	Primera C
Aug 4, 2026	Centro Español(away)	1-1	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Deportivo Español(away)	0-0	Primera C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Lugano win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Leones de Rosario win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	Leones de Rosario 2-2 Lugano	Primera C

Last archived meeting: Leones de Rosario vs Lugano on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lugano score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leones de Rosario score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lugano	1.2	0.8	9	6/15	7/15
Leones de Rosario	0.9	0.8	6	5/15	3/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lugano sit 2nd in Primera C (39 points from 25 matches) and Leones de Rosario sit 3rd (37 points from 25 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Lugano	25	10	9	6	29	22	39
3	Leones de Rosario	25	9	10	6	24	22	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lugano vs Leones de Rosario?: The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 38%, against 35% for a draw and 27% for Leones de Rosario.
Where and when is Lugano vs Leones de Rosario played?: Lugano vs Leones de Rosario is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Moraños, in the Primera C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.