Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
The Footlab model makes Deportivo La Coruña II the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Lugo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Deportivo La Coruña II starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,888).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Deportivo La Coruña II have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Arenteiro(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Ávila(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Lugo win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Deportivo La Coruña II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2024 | Lugo 3-0 Deportivo La Coruña II | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II on Jul 31, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo La Coruña II score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Deportivo La Coruña II | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 40 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo La Coruña II the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Lugo.
- Where and when is Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II played?
- Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.